Europe will overtake Canada as a supplier of imported timber to the United States

In recent years, the global timber market has been transformed by factors such as supply chain disruptions caused by the epidemic, bans imposed by Western countries on Russian timber, and worsening wildfires in North America and Europe. The Canadian softwood lumber market, for example, shrank during this summer's long-running wildfires.

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Canada is experiencing its worst wildfire season on record this year, directly impacting the country's timber production. Canada is the world's second largest producer of softwood after the United States. However, the country's production has declined significantly over the past five years.

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According to ResourceWise, Canada's timber production has fallen by almost 25 per cent in five years and is now about 60 per cent of the total output at its peak 20 years ago. There are two main reasons for the decline in Canadian production: Pine beetle infestation destroys harvests and quality; Wildfires result in reduced forest acreage and harvesting activities.

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The uncertainty of supply will not only affect the market supply and demand balance, but also lead to the instability of market price. The decline in Canada's overall supply may also seriously affect its position in the global wood products market. From the perspective of the lumber trade between the United States and Canada, about 30% of the lumber consumption in the United States needs to be met by imports, and Canadian sawmills supply 90-97% of this 30% of imports. As you can imagine, the majority of imported wood in the United States comes from Canada. But declining Canadian lumber production means Canada can't meet U.S. demand as much as it once did. European sawmills have opportunities in this context.

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Driven by the continued growth of the global timber market, the market share of European sawmills has increased to around 15% by 2023. Given the current state of the Canadian lumber market, there are limited opportunities to increase lumber production, so European sawmills could become important suppliers to the U.S. lumber market over the next decade, surpassing Canada. 山东优科新材料有限公司

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